Insofar as the bear market in residential real estate is concerned, we note two aspects of interest. The first is the profusion of predictions about when the bottom might be reached. The second is the persistent decline in house prices AND, complementarily, certain very ominous inventory figures. As far as the multiplicity of so-called "forecasts" for where the bottom in prices is, and what its proximity to the current date is, let us begin by saying just this: it has been our experience that one very reliable hallmark of a final bottom in any bear market -- regardless of whether it be stocks, bonds, precious metals, commodities, or whatever -- is the DEARTH OF FORECASTS OF A BOTTOM. This final stage of a bear market is typically referred to as the "capitulation" stage. And with good reason. For it is at this point that everyone -- amateur and professional alike -- have given up. |
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